Harm Oosthoek~2 min readWhy the ERE price rose nearly 7% last week
Oil got cheaper last week after Trump announced a deal with Iran, and that is exactly why the ERE price rose by nearly 7%. Counter-intuitive, we know. Here is how it works, and what it means for your payout.
Oil got cheaper last week, and that is exactly why the ERE price rose by nearly 7%. That feels backwards, so let us explain.
What happened
President Trump announced a preliminary deal with Iran: the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the naval blockade is lifted. Roughly a fifth of all the world's crude oil flows through that single waterway. The market sensed relief and oil prices dropped • Brent around 4.8%, WTI about 4%.
You would expect cheaper energy to mean less value for a green credit. The opposite happened.
What sets the ERE price?
Fuel suppliers must deliver a fixed share of renewables every year • 14.4% in 2026, rising to 28.4% in 2030. That obligation is set in law and does not move with the oil price. An ERE (Emission Reduction Unit) is, at its core, the value of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy. Think of it as the green premium: the gap between cheap fossil fuel and the more expensive renewable alternative.
Suppliers have two ways to meet it: they blend in renewable biofuels, or they buy ERE certificates to cover their CO₂ obligation. That is why ERE prices track this green premium.
Why the ERE price goes up
When fossil fuel gets cheaper, the gap between fossil and renewable grows wider. Because the ERE price tracks that premium, ERE's actually rise in value. Cheap oil, expensive ERE. It is also a young, thin market, so a move like this can swing hard within a single week. For more on how an ERE works, see How ERE registration works.
What it means for you
The ERE price moves with the market and can fall again just as fast. The difference is in when you sell. Our traders, led by Harm Oosthoek (formerly of Flow Traders), follow the market closely and sell your credits when the price is right • not the moment they come in. You do not have to time anything or watch anything. We make sure your ERE's are sold when it pays off, not when it happens to be convenient.
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